I'm an American journalist traveling way outside my comfort zone, living for half a year in Tanzania and trying to cast a fresh pair of eyes on the complexities of development in one of the poorest places in the world.

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13th September 2010

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Trying again to post our short film in an easier format.

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13th September 2010

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My story on Tanzanian school fees →

Finally, my story about the problem of school fees at schools in Tanzania is out today. Here’s a copy

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10th September 2010

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Update

With deep gratitude for the people who have been reading and e-mailing me about the blog, I apologize that it ended so suddenly. After my time in Europe I was only back briefly in Tanzania before returning to the United States. I had a few good adventures, but the moment of the blog had passed. Still, look out for some more photos and perhaps occasional posts to come up. Also, my story on Tanzanian education for the AP is out this weekend, and I’m hoping to figure out how to post a short film I made, too.

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10th May 2010

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By sheer coincidence, I posted a short item on Esther Duflo yesterday; turns out she’s extensively profiled in this week’s New Yorker (unfortunately not offered on their web site). The article explores in much more depth the exact issue I mentioned yesterday: the pursuit of scientific analysis — randomized trials — about what works and what doesn’t in development policy. I’m a believe in principle but perhaps more along the lines of the criticism offered by Angus Deaton toward the end of this piece. I’m not a development economist but I have in fact seen firsthand some of this research being done. I’ve sat in on interviews. I’ve talked to people working in the field. This research is very, very difficult to produce in a sufficiently unflawed manner. The complexities of working in extremely poor places are beyond description. Respondents tell surveyors what they think they want to hear. They give impossible answers. Much is lost in translation. I’m just deeply skeptical of the purity of even the most well-intentioned of this kind of research. And that requires some humility when it comes to making use of the results. Duflo’s work is supposed to be a kind of antidote to “silver bullet” development theories, but it shouldn’t be mistaken for a silver bullet itself.

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8th May 2010

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http://blog.ted.com/2010/05/social_experime.php →

One of the themes I’ve been writing about in this blog the last few months is trying to identify some middle-way wisdom in the debate between the pro-aid and anti-aid sides in the great intellectual debate over global development. Part of the answer, I think, lies in countless non-obvious bits of wisdom about what works and what doesn’t, determined through experience and careful research. Here’s a TED lecture on that very topic from MIT’s Esther Duflo.

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4th May 2010

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PARIS _ Pictured above is the tartare de veau pastry appetizer from Petrus, a Michelin 1-star spot on the Rue de Villiers, side-by-side with the millefeuille de vanille for desert. Needless to say, it is not the kind of thing you find in Moshi, and you certainly wouldn’t eat raw beef there if you did. It cost me enough Euros to rescue Greece. I don’t care. It was worth it. It is the sort of the thing you dream about in Africa, and if you thought about it too much might make you feel too guilty to eat. Anticipating such a problem, I resolved not to think about it.

So, recipe for exploding your own brain: live for four months in a small city in rural East Africa, slowly growing accustomed to muddy roads, ubiquitous incompetence and dysfunction, and a diet of rice, beans and the occasional scrawny chicken. Then, eat dinner with your wife on a Wednesday, drive to the airport and board a plane for Paris, arriving before lunch the next day.

The last four days have been a multi-sensory overload. So many things you notice. Sirens. The sound of a place where the police actually respond to things, rather than just sitting around a checkpoints while the world cracks up around them. A place where it can rain, and yet life goes on. Mirabilu dictu! Pavement! You nearly weep with joy at the most seemingly trivial example of functioning infrastructure. Nor even one mosquito to bother me in sidewalk cafes, on any one of the average 5.2 meals I have been eating per day. And yes, you do wonder how it’s possible that two countries on the same planet at the same time could provide such utterly and almost unimaginably different experiences to their citizens. I am further than ever from answering that question, though I am certainly glad to now be gathering data and observations vis-à-vis the European side of the issue.

As promised, this will not devolve into another European travel blog, as the world has enough of those. I will note for the record the rediscovered joys stated above, plus a few others: fat, neigbhorhood cafes with a cup of cofee and a newspaper, Vivaldi’s Four Seasons at the Sainte Chappelle, a jazz band on the Left Bank, the Impressionists at the Musee d’Orsay, the smell of the fromageries, a rainy weekday afternoon movie, confit de canard, drug stores.

I will also commend to anyone the experience of stepping out from your life to travel alone for a few weeks. It is of course not always feasible, and probably won’t be for me again anytime soon. But happily it is feasible for me now, and that’s exactly why I did it. Time is the ultimate depreciating asset, so it is irrational not to spend it.

As for the alone part, it isn’t for everyone, and I wasn’t sure it would be for me. And in a few weeks that might prove the case. Certainly, I was sorry Maria had to stay behind and work in Africa, as everything is always more interesting and fun when she is there to laugh at it with me. That said, there is something delightful in being answerable to know one, simply strolling wherever you wish around the city, stopping to eat when you feel like it and going as fast or as slow as you like. It was definitely a good call to start my month of travels with an extended stay in one spot. Now comes a bit more travel - to Prague tonight, then Vienna and across Bavaria and eventually to Munich, where I fly to the U.K. to meet my family. I promise to post occasional entries if I think of anything interesting to say — and equally important not to post if I do not.

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29th April 2010

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Some safari photos from Lake Manyara, Tanzania.

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24th April 2010

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On medicine in the country-side and hard-hitting police work in Moshi…..

In a place with such enormous medical challenge, and so many people dying of preventable causes, palliative care is understandably not a priority. Why invest resources in helping people die more comfortably when you might be able to keep them from dying at all? And yet, why shouldn’t it be? In any setting, you could always devote more resources to preventing death than to managing it. If there is a moral case for doing that in the first world, why not the third? If you can’t keep people from dying, they should be made as comfortable as possible.

These photos come from our visit yesterday with Dr. Yesiah Meru on a USAID-funded palliative care project in a very poor, very rural area between Moshi and the town of Machame, where they are based. I was journalistically curious and it fit in nicely with Maria’s interest in finding ways to help front-line health workers offer rudimentary mental health services. If ever there were a good target population for depression, this would be it.

We visited about a half-dozen homes over the course of the morning, spread across a few villages that were poor even by the standards we have gotten accustomed to. Despite all the recent rains, it was clear this area has not received nearly as much of it as the foothills visible just a few miles away; the earth is slightly muddy but still cracked and hard.

In fact, not all of our visits were really palliative; clearly that is one focus of this project, but it also visits people in a range of circumstances. Our first stop (first photo) was actually a bereavement visit, to pay respects to the families of people they have worked with who have passed away. The hosts were the parents of a 42-year-old woman who passed away just three weeks ago. As our jeep pulled up, the father, mother, a brother and a few scattered children — the family structure wasn’t entirely clear but at least one belonged to the recently deceased woman — gathered a few plastic stools and pushed them against the outside wall of their home in a line to capture the sliver of shade under the hot sun for their guests. A bell clanged away from the neck of a scrawny cow, while a few chickens and tiny goats wandered around the courtyard and in and out of the house, a crackly radio playing folk and gospel songs in the background.

This couple was very dignified but had looks of truly deep sadness etched into their faces. The little boy looked totally lost. The father had a white patch of hair and wore a pair of old, crooked glasses, jean shorts and plastic sandals. He and his wife reported they had seven children; four have now died. The latest story was somewhat murky to me in the translation. The general cause was HIV but the immediate one less clear. She had been receiving some anti-retroviral treatment, but did not receive her diagnosis until the case was quite advanced. Whether or not she was properly taking the daily drug regimen is unclear. Virtually all of the 1200 patients in the project have HIV, though a few older patients have other conditions like terminal cancer (which is rarely identified here. One reason is people don’t live long enough to develop cancer, or if they do it simply is never diagnosed).

In any case, death certificates are rare and autopsies non-existent, so it often isn’t clear exactly, though HIV is typically a contributing factor. Reports that AIDS has somehow been cured in Africa are sadly mistaken; people still die from it all the time.

Dr. Meru and two social workers, Deograsisu Mrosso and and Elly Meena, respectfully asked how they were faring and checked on some of the other children in the home who had been left with a package of school uniforms and rudimentary supplies. The brother led everyone in a long prayer. Then we walked through a muddy patch of vegetables and into a clearing where the daughter is buried in a shallow mound of dirt with a white cross, with some fresh bows and ribbons dropped on top. Dr. Meru asked several times if I had any questions for them, but it felt very intrusive. I only asked their daughter’s name: Janet Samuel.

We next visited several patients: a bed-ridden elderly woman in her home who claimed, almost (but perhaps not totally) impossibly, to have been born in 1896 and remember World War I as a young adult here (basically, very few people in Tanzania older than about 40 know precisely when they were born, and exaggeration is very common. Still, who knows?). She is cared for her in her home by her son. We spoke a bit about how rare it is in the United States for family members to take care of elderly relatives in their own homes. This seemed to confirm everyone’s worst opinions about life in the United States. Another woman we visited, tired-looking but smiling, is HIV-positive, but hopefully not a palliative case as she is receiving anti-retrovirals. The treatment distribution, and the drugs themselves, are substantially more effective than just a few years ago, Dr. Meru told me. Still, there are enormous challenges; people simply don’t have the few cents to take the bus into treatment centers. More and more clinics are sending vans into the villages to distribute drugs directly.

Our final stop was an elderly woman with a leg injury. She lives with her extended family but sits all day on the ground under the shade of a small propped-up thatch-roof structure that doubles as their kitchen, with a small fire pit next to her. She has no cane, wheelchair, or access to rehabilitation. A depression diagnosis could be made visually, from 20 feet away. The program has access to handful of pain medications (no opiates) and other drugs (an anti-worm medicine) it is able to distribute; getting a basic (and available here) anti-depressant like amitriptyline added to the list would seem like a worthwhile project.

 

On the public bus home, we became real visitors to Africa; somebody snatched Maria’s wallet. One looks back on these things and always things “if only we’d……“ Gotten off the bus one stop early instead of heading into town for lunch. Not taken the seat. Taken a purse with a zipper. Maria is beating herself up over letting it happen and what she might have done differently in the chaotic moment when she realized it was gone, when everyone was disembarking the bus and several people around her knew what had happened but refused to point out which person had done it or do anything about it (I was at the front and didn’t realize what had happened until it was too late). Personally, I wish she’d just started shouting really loudly and causing a commotion, but I think it was actually a lesson learned at a pretty modest price. We got away pretty easy - she had about $35 in the wallet, and one credit card to cancel, and is so angry hopefully she will be super careful in the future (if we ever taken another public bus… a big “if,” considering our limited experience). Since you can’t use credit cards anywhere here, we didn’t worry much about that. But I think I understand why she is so upset about it; it isn’t losing the money but your faith in people around you who don’t speak up to stop something. You come to a place and try to help do some good and now this. The experience seemed to take on the burden of all her frustrations over all the obstacles here that have made her work difficult and frustrating.

We decided somewhat irrationally to go to the police station, which is right next to the bus depot. We stood for around 10 minutes while functionaries ignored us. Then, a friendly, English-speaking man took us to a desk where he and another officer began filling out forms. And more forms. They wrote down the missing contents. All sorts of irrelevant information, on various pieces of paper. Her religion? Really? We tried to explain that we just thought they should know what had happened might want to talk to the bus driver and door attendant, who were probably still at the bus station (and, in my opinion, were in on the theft, since they refused to stop the bus and contributed to the commotion). They know their regular passengers, and while the wallet was certainly gone it wouldn’t hurt for them to see the police showing some interest in petty crime on buses.

Ha! So naïve. Then filled in the boxes. One section that was not be filled in had to be x-ed out, but with perfect lines, so they got out a ruler to make sure the lines they drew through one section of the form were perfectly straight. This from a country so obsessed with procedure and paperwork that across the street from the police station sit a stand of three or four stalls where people literally sell rubber stamps.

Then they took us to an upstairs office By now I had concluded our efforts to be good citizens and report the crime were completely misguided. More forms. Finally a woman starts filling out a receipt. Maria notices first and ask what the receipt is for. She informs it’s 500 Tanzanian shillings (about 37 cents) for the privilege of receiving a form confirming our items have been stolen. And here, a streak of what I frankly consider pretty heroic patience during three-plus months in Tanzania comes to a crashing halt. I commence a volcanic eruption that threatens European air travel. An f-bomb drops quietly beneath my breath. More loudly: “Let me get this straight. You want US to pay YOU to report a theft?”

The man seems genuinely surprised at my surprise. It is for the form, he says. Why do we need a form, I ask. What good does it do us? So you can be reimbursed. By whom? The government of Tanzania? He suggests this form will be necessary to collect reimbursement from our insurance company. I struggle not to laugh at the thought of an alternate universe where this would be covered, but only if accompanied by a 5-page report with stamps on it. I explain once again the reason we came: to report the theft in case you wish to try to actually do something about it. Slightly calmer now, I tell him we have absolutely no intention of paying and he can keep the report; sorry for the misunderstanding and to take up his time. Maria makes the obvious point: I just had my wallet stolen. What am I supposed to pay you with?

Our refusal flummoxes him, and he insists we go downstairs. He relays the story to his corpulent supervisor, who asks where we are from and he says he just spent six months in America at an FBI training college. “So at this FBI training college,” I am tempted to ask, “do they advise you to handle theft investigations by filling out endless forms, or actually going to the scene of the crime and talking to people, at the very least to fly the departmental flag?” Probably wisely, I restrain myself. With a dramatic flare, he removes 500 TS from his own pocket and pays the fee. I regret not insisting he take the money back, but eventually we just thank him and take our report, and head home. Now you are a real visitor to Africa, I tell Maria.

Final update: the Almond family arrived in Africa late last night, on a cloud of homespun West Virginia wisdom courtesy of KLM. They came five days later than planned due to the volcano (insert in-law volcano joke here), bearing 130 pounds of medical supplies, cookies and other sundries. Chacha, our driver, was I think a little overwhelmed by two delirious West Virginians talking constantly about their home state during the ride home from the airport. They are still asleep as I write (11 a.m.) and tomorrow we depart on a two-day safari. Wednesday night I depart for Paris. At that time the blog may fade away as I don’t think people care as much about some guy touring through Europe. If it persists, the new emphasis will probably tend toward cuisine, as that will be the unrelenting focus of my trip. So be forewarned: good-bye development issues, public health, education, and African political analysis. Hello European food porn.

 

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22nd April 2010

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Mtakuja revisited, and more on language and learning.

In seven days I will be in Paris, come hell or high ash, reversing the rice, beans and scrawny chicken diet of the last three months in one bold cholesterol-laden swoop. I have been looking forward to the R&R for a while now, though it is nice to be leaving at a time when I don’t feel desperate to escape. Walking around Moshi yesterday, I had the satisfying realization that I finally feel pretty comfortable here, certainly in comparison to my wide-eyed, completely freaked-out state when I first arrived. I’m gla I won’t be staying here forever but I see that it is possible for people to live happily and in relative comfort here for an extended period, and that I could do so if I had to. And now that I have had that realization, I am happy to escape for a month of traveling in Europe before returning here in June for a few weeks, followed by a long safari with my friend Dave Scott — of approximately 50 who promised to visit, he alone will actually do so — and finally home to the USA in July.

— I returned to Mtakuja this week (some photos above), the village I wrote about in an earlier post where a Dutch NGO is experimenting with a comprehensive approach to try to lift an extremely poor village of about 4,500 out of poverty. It is a small-scale version of the approach getting a great deal of (sometimes critical) attention from the Millennium Villages project. Joris, the outgoing project leader, and his wife Sarah were kind enough to let me spend some time with them and ask a lot of annoying questions.

 Mtakuja is substantially greener than when I was there a few weeks ago. Last year, the rains (and harvest) failed entirely and after 22 months with almost no water the place looked terrible. But after solid rains the last few weeks it was noticeably greener. Work is proceeding in the common field the project is helping to organize and irrigate, with villagers working to clear the land. Tanesco, the power company, is slowly starting to put up electrical poles to connect the field to the grid, much to Joris’s satisfaction. That will enable pumps to run, tapping groundwater from boreholes reaching down 100 meters or so into the dry earth. We visited a local agricultural training center, where the lead farmers are receiving two weeks of training in both crop management and leadership. We sat in briefly on one of their classes, an incongruous site of about a dozen or so roughly-clad Tanzanian farmers sat around a table in what could have been an MBA classroom, with an engaging teacher working through a Powerpoint about leadership techniques.

Out back are fields where the students get hands-on agricultural lessons. Zablon, a retired Tanzanian government agriculture official who has been hired by the project to work with the farmers, told me there is a whole body of knowledge he is trying to convey to them to improve the chances of the fields in the irrigation project being productive. Some are quite simple: local farmers, he says, almost always spread their maize plants too far apart in a misguided effort to give each plant more nutrients. In fact the optimal yield comes from putting more plants closer together. That information alone, he says, could double production. Overall, he thinks the village could improve its maize yield by a factor of four, which would be an essential building block for transforming the village economy. More maize would set in motion of a virtuous cycle where there is enough cash for low-level investment and savings to protect against future shocks, and to make the irrigation project financially self-sustaining. It’s a useful reminder: someday, perhaps, industry and a service economy will help lift Tanzania into prosperity. But that will be decades away under any conceivable scenario. First it has to rise out of extreme poverty, and that will be all about agriculture (if I have learned one useful thing about poverty here, it is that there really is an important quantitative and qualitative difference between an income of $300 a year and $1200. In the former you are utterly stuck; with the latter you may well be moving in the right direction)

But there are also large obstacles, from the saltiness of the soil to the novelty of the experience for the villagers and the unforeseen, unintended consequences of changing the economic dynamics (broken as they are) of the village. Still, it is the only conceivable way forward. The village of Chakarini, next to Mtakuja (and the location of the training center) has had more advanced irrigation for about a decade, and for that reason alone is more noticeably developed, with better-quality buildings visible along its roads. Some Chakarini farmers have even bought plots in Mtakjua. And the main determinant of success, Joris, Gebert (his successor) and Zablon insist, will be involvement of the villagers themselves. Several years ago, the Japanese poured development dollars into the area to try to build up rice farming, but did it mostly on their own, and the system broke down soon after they left. A giant rice refinery they left behind now runs at about 10 percent capacity. To their credit, the three have made community involvement the cornerstone of everything they do. The interesting question to me isn’t whether money can lift a village like Mtakuja out of poverty, but whether it can be done without someone like Joris on the ground in every single village. On the one hand, it’s a little patronizing to think that’s what’s needed — a Westerner with an MBA. But it isn’t the MBA that matters: It’s that Joris speaks fluent Swahili, has gotten to know and earn the trust of all the village leaders and many of the villagers themselves. He is determined to involve them in every aspect and says it is better for the community to try something as a group and fail than for him to do it himself and make it work, because it will stop working after he leaves. His most useful tool is patience.

“When we are done with our first phase in 2013, we’ll measure,” Joris told me. “I have no doubt we’ll show significant progress. But what matters is after. If you come back in 2020 or 2025, is this place better off than surrounding villages? What is going on on the ground? Are there local coordinators in the village? Are they truly involving the community?” If not, he says, there will be no permanent good. So I’m not sure the question is whether enough money can be raised to test comprehensive development on the Sachs model. If this project costs $250,000 a year for 5,000 people, that adds up to roughly $1 billion a year for a similar level of commitment to 20 million people living in extreme poverty - a lot but not impossible. The more limiting factor seems to be the number of Jorises in the world — people who speak the local language and have the patience (which I would certainly lack, as would I think many save-the-world types of the kind who might be applying to work in Millennium villages) to make community involvement such a high priority that they would prefer to fail than to create something unsustainable. And people who do not become cynical. This seems like one of Joris’ more extraordinary accomplishments — that he has largely, if not quite entirely, avoided the deep cynicism that affects so many ex-pats here. They are probably more cynical even than me, since I started with a reservoir. They are idealists who came to solve problems and hit a wall, and their disappointment is acute. Joris, by contrast, seems endowed with extraordinary patience. Still, he leaves next month after two years, returning with his family to New York (interestingly, he will be working for Millennium Villages). His successor, Gebert, is in place, but will have to get to know everyone himself and build up the level of trust it has taken Joris a while to accumulate, as well as fully master Swahili. -

— In the afternoon, I tagged along with Joris’ lovely wife Sarah, who visits one of the local secondary schools once a week for an effort at some health education and communication-skills building. It was the latest of several glimpses I’ve gotten of secondary education in Tanzania and it wasn’t terribly encouraging. The school has a few advantages — some new buildings under construction with support from TPC (the sugar plantation) but the classrooms still have dirt floors and gaping holes in the walls instead of windows, where wind and rain and dust blow in. When it rains, Sarah says, the noise of water falling on the metal roof is so loud students can barely hear their teachers.

The school is exceptionally crowded. On paper, at least — on the scheduled posted on the wall of the office of the headmistress — it has an ambitious and disciplined daily schedule running from 7 a.m. until after 4, with work on Saturdays, too. But transportation is a huge problem. Because the cachement area is so large, many students don’t arrive until 9 or 9:30. Many walk for miles; needless to say there is no school bus system here. It’s hard to see how students who miss the first two hours of school every day could possibly stay on track. Sarah has been working with a group of high-school aged girls on health issues. Among her activities has been trying to help them identify adults they can trust and approach with problems. It’s clear, she says, they don’t trust the teachers or the school counselor (who is just a teacher with a full teaching load). Her training is to encourage and direct students toward outside resources, to push them to seek help when they need it. Here, the whole premise breaks down; there are no outside resources. They are basically on their own.

We sat under the tree with a group of strong students selected for her once-a-week class. Recently, she had them write a play about HIV and perform it for the other students in hopes of spreading some of the lessons more widely. As they worked on songs (a subsequent assignment) a group of boys passed us walking back and forth to a patch of banana trees on the school grounds. They are required to tend the banana patch, not as a pedagogical exercise, a la a Berkeley elementary school’s organic farm, but to supply the teachers with food to supplement their admittedly meager salaries. Students also handle the groudskeeping, sweeping the grass around the school buildings clear with machetes, among other tasks. I did pass the classroom of one teacher that left me encouraged, at least initially. He was a smiling and engaging young man and was teaching chemistry by bringing laughing students up to the front of room to grasp arms in different formations imitating molecules. But it was hard to hold the attention of the class because there were dozens, perhaps hundreds of students milling around loudly outside. It was hard to tell, and I didn’t want to interrupt to confirm, but the likely explanation is that this was “extra time” during the school day and he was teaching the students who pay additional fees for supplemental instruction. Outside, those who could not afford the extra fees were left to kill time. Supposedly all the “essentials” are covered tuition-free and the extra payments are for supplemental lessons. But it is widespread practice to nudge the more essential material into the extra class time to try to drum up business for the teacher.

I told Sarah that the students, at least, seemed heroically well-behaved compared to American ones, but she wasn’t able to summon much good will on that front either; a major reason, she says, is that corporal punishment and humiliation are widespread. That makes for fairly docile, well-behaved children, perhaps, but it comes with a price. None of those issues, however, were the most discouraging. They are all difficult, but potentially solvable and improvable over time.

But there is one absolutely central aspect to education in Tanzania that seems fundamentally broken, to enormous consequence: the language issue, which I have written about before. In secondary school, instruction switches to English, but neither the teachers nor the students are prepared for it. Teachers read from textbooks in English then essentially translate into Swahili (probably poorly). The students Sarah is teaching have some of the best English in the school but even theirs is mixed and they obviously are not at a level where they are prepared to fully learn in English. Sarah reports they do poorly on national exams partly because the questions are more open-ended, and the best most students can hope for is a kind of learning by rote memorization that is not, ultimately, terrible effective for exam preparation or useful in real life. Creativity is not a priority, a problem that seems to poison the workforce of the entire country. Tanzania benefited enormously from the emergence of Swahili as a national second language, which helped unite the country and spare it many of the problems of its neighbors. But, sadly, it is now paying a big price. In other places, it is easier for English to emerge as a de facto national second or even first language. Here, it seems obvious to me the country would be much better off instructing through secondary school in Swahili and complementing it with intensive English instruction. Then at least the students might master the concepts of subjects like chemistry and then, hopefully, learn enough English by studying it intensively for an hour two each day to eventually apply those concepts in English. That is how countries, such as Holland, for instance, end up with well-educated citizens who also speak good English. But Tanzania doubled down on its policy of switching instruction to English. It believes English is the language of global commercie and its route to prosperity. Perhaps. Also, there are few secondary teaching materials available in Swahili. But what else matters if the students don’t master any of the material. Students in Japan don’t learn English very well but they learn a curriculum and have a chance to study English; that seems like a much better outcome. It is very difficult to see a strong way forward for a country where, on a widespread basis, teachers and students cannot understand what it is they are supposed to be teaching and learning. —-

Finally, an update from Rwanda, and not an encouraging one:: Kagame has arrested his main rival for the presidential election (http://bit.ly/a6n6pO ). He appears to have no chance of losing the election so this does not bode well for his understanding of how important this sort of thing is. For all his virtues, he is persuaded he alone is the savior of the country and that the outside world has done so badly by Rwanda it has no moral authority to criticize him. It will be interesting to see if he is still a global media darling in five years.

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16th April 2010

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On the rainy season, Swedish nurses and the failures of academic research, Sachs-vs-Easterly and steak taunting

Should you be approached by anyone seeking charitable contributions to support East Africa, by all means give all you can — unless the solicitor attempts to justify his pitch with the claim the “rains failed” this year. Tanzania, at least, has many problems, but the rains most definitely have not failed this year. The only thing they have failed to do is stop, for three weeks.

As a result, people have suddenly sprung to work in almost every corner, cultivating small vegetable plots in the suddenly fertile soil. Suddenly maize is growing along roads and highways, in patches along paths in backwoods, in all sorts of places with no obvious ownership. It’s not entirely clear how they are allocated but somehow it works. Private property is kind of an amorphous concept here; squatters rights seems to be the operative legal framework. Gardeners and housekeepers for expats seem to claim some longstanding right to set up remarkably extensive farms in the yards of the houses where they work and keep the fruits of their labor. Apparently, it’s just poor form, if you have some claim to the land and are not really using it, to kick them out.

In any case, Tanzania certainly looks greener and more fertile these days, though the labor-capital ratio remains pretty appalling. The farming tools — machetes and hoes mostly — are still pretty much medieval. Nobody I’ve seen seems to use fertilizer and, outside a coffee plantation, I have yet to see a single tractor. Most of this food will be consumed or sold for tiny amounts of cash in local markets. Of course, with its tiny labor costs, Africa could and should be growing a wide range of crops for Western markets, trading agricultural products for the other things it desperately needs and can’t make. For the most part, that still doesn’t happen, partly for lack of infrastructure (mainly roads to transport goods) and public and private investment, but in substantial part because of huge farm subsidies held in place by Midwestern U.S. senators and members of the European Parliament. It’s still U.S. law that the vast majority of even U.S. food aid comes from surplus from American farms. This not only deprives African farmers of a potential large customers, it is wholly inefficient and ineffective in terms of distributing the aid. Bill Clinton recently called the policy the central flaw of all of U.S. development policy. Nobody seems to think it likely Congress will change the law.

I spent yesterday afternoon and evening at the Watering Hole, the main local expat hangout. It’s down a winding, muddy road outside of town, behind a big fence and a locked gate. The owner, Shoshi, is a quarter-Tanzanian (and three-quarters German, I believe) local who also runs a big-game hunting company in addition to the bar. Sometimes I go there in the late afternoon for the half-decent Internet connection (when the power works), a mediocre dinner, and — on Thursday-Saturday — a fairly recent movie on their big projector they set up under a tent by the river.

Sitting last night with five friends, after not visiting in a while, I had the odd realization I’ve now been here too long to know anybody. Moshi is a very transient place, with most Western visitors coming in for a few weeks or months. Everyone seems to be social and meet each other in the first few months they’re here, but eventually you kind of bunker down, go into town less, hang out with the same small group of people. I actually knew more people two months ago. Another sign I’m starting to hit the wall. Fortunately, I leave for Europe in 12 days.

It’s an interesting crowd at the Watering Hole — probably a solid majority come from Scandinavia, thanks to those countries’ generous development budgets and adventuresome citizens. Most nights several groups of tall, blonde Norwegian nurses or Swedish public health researchers will come in — all of them female. Single men would be well advised to enter the field of public health; it is heavily lopsided toward women, and blonde northern European ones at that.

I admire all the public health people coming here, but the nonsense and jargon they all spout is really astounding. I don’t fully blame the nobly intended field of public health, but the terrible culture of research. On one insufferable afternoon a few weeks ago, several of them sat at a table next to me smoking (even the public health people!) and reading aloud in English portions of the papers they were writing to summarize whatever projects they were working on. Among their shocking conclusions were gems like: “better education about the causes of HIV among the public would help stop its spread” and “Our study found people without regular access to health care are more likely to suffer from a range of preventable diseases.”

What 23-year-old masters students are doing in their month abroad is of no great global consequence, and perhaps they are learning skills that will help them address better questions down the line. The failings of the broader culture of academic research (science and otherwise) are more severe. One of the most discouraging things on display here is how dependent everyone is on research funding. There is also a visible disconnect between the abundant need for good research in the world and the pointlessness of much of the research that is actually done.

From my distant vantage, the problem is the perversity of the system of rewards and incentives in Western academic research careers. Nobody wants to fund clinical work, so even the people here doing that have to do research to bring in the dollars. Thus research becomes the currency of an academic career. Thus everyone is desperate to publish something. The system is overwhelmed by the demand to publish and fails to efficiently allocate funding in the most socially useful way. Journals proliferate, enabling the academic community to sidestep its responsibility to weed out poor work.

Studies go forward destined to create the most miniscule and predictable findings. These mountains of rubbish have become essential resume items for moving up the career ladder. There is so much information that it cannot be processed, and the shortcut proxy for good work becomes whether someone served as second or fourth author on a paper with a well-regarded first author (who invariably did nothing but lend his name to the paper, but became famous by playing the game himself as a third and then second and finally first author).

This is not an argument for less research, just better. Then perhaps thousands of obscure and usually unreadable scientific journals would mercifully go under, clearing the way for a few dozen or perhaps hundred well-regarded, thoroughly refereed journals that could focus on the most genuinely important questions examined by the people best-qualified to examine them.

Meanwhile, if clinical work and better research were more duly rewarded, you might see more papers with useful but not headline-grabbing (and thus career-boosting) findings. People might share their data more widely, to the public’s benefit, if their promotions didn’t depend on getting something first. And in global health, you might also see more real clinical work. It is beyond depressing to visit KCMC (the big hospital here) and see a half-dozen American doctors sitting in an office running numbers on Stata instead of out in the villages and on the wards. They all do some of that, but their funding here is to do research, so that must come first.

— 

For three months I’ve enjoyed what I think is a pretty thorough self-guided tutorial on the question: Why are countries like Tanzania poor? It has involved time to read, as well as to visit communities here, meet people who work with them and live in them, tag along with researchers, and — to some extent, at least — get off the beaten path. Unfortunately, I am no closer to any answer, besides: It’s complicated. Anyone who provides a simple answer is wrong, and probably revealing more about themselves and their personal politics than the issue itself.

The most basic answer, of course, is that Tanzania, like other poor countries, is largely unable to make things other people need or want, and with whom they can trade. But that doesn’t explain why THAT is the case, and unless you answer that question for a particular country, the prescriptions for fixing it won’t work. Is that a function of geography and natural resources? The actions or selfishness of other countries? Poor governance? Internal cultural pathologies? Every country is probably different.

Students of the topic will be familiar with the two leading antagonists in the debate. In one corner is Jeffrey Sachs, the much-fawned-over development economist and globe-trotting FOB (Friend of Bono). He wants to spend more money. Sachs believes development aid can work, and that the West has been exceptionally stingy, especially toward Africa. He thinks a substantial though affordable increase in development aid — health care, education, water, micro-finance — would jump-start a virtuous circle and help Africa grow itself out of extreme poverty.

In the other corner stands his nemesis William Easterly of NYU, (http://www.nyu.edu/fas/institute/dri/Easterly/) whose book “The White Man’s Burden” is a pretty damning indictment of the record of Western aid to Africa. Adding it all up, he argues quite a lot has been spent in the last 50 years. Today, many countries are poorer than they were 30 years ago. Much of development aid, he argues, has done more harm than good, distorting the economies it is supposed to help and encouraging corruption. It’s idealism versus hard-truth realism. (Easterly also has an interesting new contrarian book chapter on African brain drain, arguing it’s not necessarily so bad for Africa, and that the rights of Africans should be considered more carefully in attempts to limit it: http://bit.ly/96ptgD ).

Another key and contentious element of Sachs’ argument (his main book is “The End of Poverty”) is to diminish — indeed practically dismiss — the role of cultural factors in poverty. It’s easy to see why. “Culture” becomes an excuse for stinginess. If poverty is the fault of the victims themselves, aid is useless. Corruption, meanwhile, is also too often bandied out as an excuse for Western greed. Sachs argues many African countries are in fact better governed than they are given credit for. And if corruption is so important, he argues, why are incredibly corrupt countries like India and Pakistan growing rapidly while relatively well-governed ones like Senegal are stuck? The problem, Sachs believes, is a lack of investment and capital to get Africa out of its current poverty trap and on a track of sustainable growth. Everything else is just an excuse.

I am sympathetic with Sachs in the sense that we could certainly be far more generous. I think his description of the poverty trap — where Africans simply cannot generate enough income to create savings for investment and insurance (especially insurance, which is often overlooked in the micro-credit craze) — is basically right. I don’t know if his solutions are realistic but that is another argument.

His arguments about culture are tougher to swallow. The cases of Pakistan and India, it seems to me, could just as easily prove the opposite point: that culture is so important that it can generate or retard economic growth regardless of how corrupt a country is. The only economically consequential cultural issue Sachs seems to take seriously in his book is the oppression of women. Yet many of the very idealistic people I’ve met here — no doubt “Sachsians” in their own minds — return constantly to cultural explanations. These are not people pre-disposed to this kind of view, so I find it noteworthy how many of them do so.

Let me be clear: culture is not, as it sometimes seems, a cultural code word for laziness. Most people here are not lazy, just as East Asians have long since demonstrated they are not remotely lazy despite what many Westerners said about them just a generation or two ago. Many Tanzanians work harder than most Westerners could stand. Sometimes I run early in the mornings and sometimes late in the afternoon; in either case I often see the same people working away in their patches of land, doing backbreaking labor literally from sunup to sundown. Our “askari” (guard) works seven nights a week, from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. with no vacation and I see him working in fields and on gardening jobs often during the day. You can call a taxi driver on his cell phone 24 hours a day and he will come get you for a few thousand shillings. Along the roads in and around Moshi you see women walking miles with giant sacks of fruits or flour or other goods balanced on their heads, taking them to market — so heavy that the hospitals see a steady stream of women with neck injuries and even paralysis from compressed nerves.

So no, Tanzanians are not lazy. But work ethic is not the only economically consequential element of culture. The challenge is how to have an honest debate and evaluation of such a loaded term. There are also a much broader range of factors and behaviors that affect economic outcomes: attitudes toward work and reward, accountability, public and personal responsibility, short-and-long-term planning and even the value of human life. In many of these aspects, the culture here is virtuous: there is a much greater sense of responsibility to care for members of one’s extended family than in the West. Hospitality is more highly honored. Other aspects are plainly economically and morally destructive. Misogyny is rife. Particularly among the middle and upper classes, there is a highly destructive absence of shame around male adultery (which is partly why HIV is more commonly spread among the better off).

In the workplace, there is a complicated and perhaps inscrutable combination of cultural and economic factors that severely undermine a culture of accountability. Jobs are found and held based on connections, not performance. Mistakes are tolerated. Life, I am sorry to say so bluntly, is often cheap. People die in hospitals while nurses stand around on tea breaks. Nobody sues a doctor when he really screws up — something that even American physicians, filled with fear and contempt for the American malpractice system, lament. Journalism fails to provide the level and detail of accountability the country requires.

So how to reconcile all this? I don’t think the answer is to dismiss Sachs’ call for more generosity on the grounds the culture hasn’t “earned” it. You can’t fall into the excuse that there is something inherent in the culture here and elsewhere, going back millenia, that condemns these places to poverty. Sachs may well be right that a substantial investment of aid would create a virtuous cycle and help solve these problems. But if it does it will be in part because it helps the economically destructive aspects of the culture correct themselves. Or put differently, it will fail to help in the long run if it fails in that correction. I’d rather see Sachs acknowledge as much, and that East Asia’s ascent is proof Africa deserves a chance, not that it will succeed. To ignore the cultural aspects of poverty is not to avoid lecturing, but to deprive yourself of a whole facet of the problem’s explanation and potential tools to work on it.

The only progress I can make on answering my question is to compare it to the moment when I finally had enough science explained to me to understand that “nature vs. nurture” just isn’t how genetics works. Nature affects nurture, and nurture in turn affects nature; our genes and their surrounding environment constantly evolve and affect one another. Putting explanations firmly into one category or another simplifies things for us but creates misunderstanding with enormous moral consequences.

It is the same here. Poverty creates culture and culture creates poverty.

When you see a lot of senseless death, it is predictable to steel yourself against it, at the end of that chain of events, to allow yourself to care less about it. More importantly, when you have a system where merit is not rewarded, and all advancement is based on who you know and how successfully you can grease the wheels, it is a rational response to play that game. The whole society suffers from the lack of accountability and innovation and the wasted potential that results. There is a failure of modeling that compounds on itself. When you don’t see anyone in your community planning for the long-term because they do not have enough faith in the institutions around them to make that planning worthwhile, you plan for the short-term instead. When you see other people cheat and get away with it, you cheat, too.

When an education system rewards all the wrong things — money, rote memorization, even sex (demanded, appallingly often, by teachers of students in return for good grades), promising people are unjustly weeded out. Those who rise to the top are those who stand to lose from accountability, and thus it is not on their agendas when they rise to positions of leadership and influence.

Those are all horrendous, intractable problems. I think Sachs is naive to ignore them. But perhaps he right to focus on problems like clean water in every village, better roads, trade liberalization, debt relief. They are actually the easier ones to solve.

— 

Great excitement yesterday with the arrival of a package from home. The contents: a few drugstore items that are very expensive here and a stash of back issues of the Economist and Spectator. Also inserted by my father: the latest catalogue from “Allen Brothers: The Great Steakhouse Steaks.” This is a hundred pages of artfully photographed, high-quality and ludicrously expensive cuts of beef for order — essentially “steak porn.” The cruelty of this taunt is beyond the pale. If you see him, please have him arrested for child abuse; even though I am 35 no judge would show mercy.

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